The National Weather Service forecasts 3 to
6 inches of rain across the region from Friday through Sunday, with
pockets of higher totals possible, as deep tropical moisture interacts
with a slow moving front.
NWS said confidence is increasing that widespread rain and embedded
thunderstorms will affect the area through at least Sunday. The
heaviest rain is expected from late Friday into Sunday, and the agency
warned that rainfall rates above 4 inches per hour could occur in the
heaviest storms, enough to overwhelm drainage in urban and other poor
drainage areas.
Localized flash flooding is the primary concern. NWS said river levels
are currently low and ensemble guidance generally shows a 10 percent
or lower chance of minor flood stage at individual forecast points,
although those probabilities could rise as the forecast becomes
clearer.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to begin returning
Thursday evening. One or two storms could become strong, producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief heavy rain. As of the
September 30 morning forecast discussion, no Louisiana watches,
warnings or advisories had been issued for this system.
Residents should continue monitoring official forecasts because
totals, timing and the placement of the heaviest rain remain
uncertain.
